Will all of the swing states move similarly in the 2024 election (based on std dev of change in margin from 2020)?
4
Ṁ645Nov 13
1D
1W
1M
ALL
7%
<1.0%
20%
1.0-1.5%
19%
1.5-2.0%
25%
2.0-2.5%
16%
2.5-3.0%
13%
>3.0%
For the purposes of this market, the seven swing states are: PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA, NC.
The margin swing measures the change in margin from the previous presidential election.
For comparison, in 2020, the margin swing for these seven states was:
NC: -2.31%
NV: 0.03%
WI: 1.40%
PA: 1.88%
MI: 3.01%
AZ: 3.81%
GA: 5.37%
(Positive numbers represent a shift toward Biden, and negative numbers represent a shift toward Trump.)
The standard deviation of these seven values is 2.4%, so in 2020 this market would have resolved to 2.0-2.5%.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Which “swing states” will be won by a Democratic candidate in 2024 US presidential election?
Will a non-swing state flip in the US presidential elections in 2024?
34% chance
Which “swing states” will be won by a Republican candidate in 2024 US presidential election?
In 2024, will there be a 10% difference between two-way presidential margin and Senate margin in any swing state?
31% chance
Pairwise state results: which pairs of states / districts will vote the same way in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Swing State Power Ranking: Will this swing state vote for the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election?
How will the three "rust belt" swing states go in 2024?
Will the 2024 election be closer than 2020?
50% chance
Which states will vote for the same party in the 2024 United States Presidential Election?
Swing states of the future: Which states will be within 5 points in the 2040 presidential election?