There is a theory that states that once AI gets going, it might accelerate growth to the point where recessions are no longer a thing. There is another theory that states this has (partially, at least) already happened.

Resolves to YES if we get AGI (as per markets like https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd resolving to YES), or if it is sufficiently obvious that growth has been sufficiently turbocharged.

Resolves to NO if NBER declares the existence of a recession in the United States start started in Q3 2023 or later.

If neither happens by 2050 and Manifold is still around, well, that's super weird, but we will resolve N/A.

(Note: For the first 15 seconds the title was reversed versus the explanation, but the explanation always wins in a fight, should be fixed now, apologies to burkebot.)