Resolution criteria
This market will resolve OVER if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict amounts to more than 500 square kilometres in August 2025 according to the resolution sources.
This market will resolve UNDER if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict amounts to less than 500 square kilometres in August 2025 according to the resolution sources.
This market will resolve 50/50 if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict rounds to exactly 500 square kilometres in August 2025 according to the resolution sources.
This market will resolve N/A if the market creator determines that methodological inconsistencies between the resolution sources would affect the resolution.
Resolution sources
The resolution of this market will be based on the median estimate provided by the following six sources:
Should one or two of the resolution sources fail to provide a usable estimate within five days of the market closing, the median of the four or five available estimates will be used.
Should three or more of the resolution sources fail to provide a usable estimate within seven days of the market closing, the market will resolve N/A.
Interpretation principles
The resolution criteria will be interpreted in accordance with their apparent meaning, without regard to any intention of the market creator that is not evident in the text.
No clause, sentence or word in the resolution criteria will be considered superfluous, void or insignificant if by any other interpretation they may all be made useful and pertinent.
Close date
This market will close at 21:00:00 UTC on 31 August 2025.
Previous results
/a_l_e_x/net-territory-gained-by-russia-in-j resolved OVER.
Further information and clarifications
I will not trade in this market.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ86 | |
| 2 | Ṁ51 | |
| 3 | Ṁ49 | |
| 4 | Ṁ26 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
Should one or two of the resolution sources fail to provide a usable estimate within five days of the market closing, the median of the four or five available estimates will be used.
The five-day deadline has passed with no final estimate from Suriyak or ISW,* so I am resolving UNDER based on the median of the four available estimates (480km²).
*I did notice that ISW gave an estimate of "about 500 square kilometers thus far" on 29 August. There may be a valid argument that this should be included or even extrapolated upon, but even if it were, the median would still be under 500km².