Unconvinced that the correct direction in response to recent events is down, although personally I’m unsure about whether 40% is too low. I think Trump is unlikely to ever agree to US boots on the ground in Iran and everything else is really just a setback that’s going to strengthen the argument in the long term that Iran requires deterrence to protect against threats to the regime. They haven’t even attacked the main stockpile site at all, probably because causing a radiological incident is in nobody’s interest. The psychotic neocons in Washington openly calling for regime change probably doesn’t help with nonproliferation either.

https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/will-iran-get-a-nuclear-weapon-befo?play=true

Probability should move now I think.

Surprisingly high! There is probably a reason for the probability being so high, but I've been hearing for the last 25 years that an Iranian nuclear weapon is around the corner, and as of today in 2024 it still hasn't happened.

@WilliamDewey why do you have only 10 mana on NO then?

@RemNi because I've been just betting 10 mana on everything...

@WilliamDewey Completely reasonable as a new user! You might be interested in some of the news discussed in the comments on a related Metaculus question, if you weren't aware of it: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8129/iran-possesses-fissile-material-for-warhead/

Quite the change this month!

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