Yahya Sinwar is the leader of Hamas.
This market resolves YES on reliable international media reports of the killing or capture of Yahya Sinwar by Israeli military forces before the end of 2024, local time in Israel, or NO if he is alive and not captured at the end of 2024.
If Sinwar's status cannot be ascertained to the satisfaction of the international community - for example: if Israel claims his capture or death, Hamas denies this, and neither provide compelling evidence, this market will resolve N/A.
In the case the outcome is not immediately clear, in establishing whether the international community has formed consensus on the status of Sinwar at the end of 2024, I will turn to Wikipedia as an indication. If the article on Sinwar says it is not known whether he is alive or dead, or free or captive, that's a clear N/A. If it says he is believed to be dead or captured, that's a YES. If it says he is believed to be alive and free, that's a NO. I will ensure any statements in Wikipedia do not appear to be part of an edit war. If Wikipedia doesn't seem like it is living up to my expectations as a good indicator of the consensus view of the international community, I may use other sources.
As this may involve a judgement call, I will not bet in this market.
Corner cases: If Sinwar kills himself (assisted or otherwise) in order to avoid capture, the market will resolve YES. If he is killed by friendly fire or some other mishap during and related to an active battle with or or attack by Israeli forces, the market will resolve YES. If he dies due to some other mishap outside of a battle or attack and not caused by Israeli forces, or is intentionally killed by anyone other than Israeli forces (other than as a means to avoid capture) the market resolves NO.
๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน8,756 | |
| 2 | แน4,654 | |
| 3 | แน1,509 | |
| 4 | แน1,292 | |
| 5 | แน973 |
I don't really get the market price here. 80% of the time for this market has elapsed, yet it's still trading as high as it did at the start. Has the natural time decay been offset by new information that gives him five times the mortality rate per month? Did YES bettors always expect him to die in Q4 2024, such that time decay wasn't a factor?
@Multicore IDF and Mossad had gone into active hunting mode. Previously, they were trying to get him while saving the hostages. It had become apparent that the hostages were viewed as lost and then it was just get Sinwar and the leaders. This was signaled with killing the political leader in Iran.