What will be the main cause of an AGI-related disaster?

This market will resolve to the option that is judged to be the primary cause of a disaster involving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), if such a disaster occurs. Resolution will be based on a consensus of authoritative sources, including scientific literature, AI safety reports, and expert analysis. If no clear consensus emerges, the market will resolve as N/A.

🧠 Context

AGI refers to AI systems capable of learning and performing a wide range of tasks at or beyond human-level intelligence. While AGI could offer massive benefits, it also poses serious risks. This market explores what might be the main cause if things go wrong. Potential causes include:

• Misalignment between AGI’s goals and human values

• Malicious use of AGI by bad actors

• Unintended consequences of AGI’s autonomous decisions

• Failure to implement adequate safety measures

• Runaway self-improvement or recursive optimization

• Lack of international cooperation and oversight

• Economic collapse or mass unemployment due to automation

• AGI-driven misinformation or social manipulation

• Environmental harm caused by AGI systems

• Loss of human control over AGI

📎 Note

Multiple factors could contribute to a disaster, but this market seeks to identify the one judged to be the most central or decisive. Resolution will weigh both the scale of impact and the role of the cause in triggering or enabling the disaster.