Will the Artemis 2 crew break Apollo 13's human altitude record?
7
Ṁ927
2026
65%
chance

The moon's orbit around the Earth is non-circular. Its maximum and minimum distances from the Earth (apogee and perigee) differ by about 42,000 km. Apollo 13's lunar approach on 15 April 1970 occurred roughly when the moon was at apogee.

In 2009, astrodynamicist Daniel Adamo used Apollo mission data to calculate several of the Apollo missions' maximum geodetic altitudes. Apollo 13 had the highest of these, at 400,046 km. This confirmed that the crew of Apollo 13 holds the record for the farthest a human has traveled from the Earth.

http://www.aiaahouston.org/Horizons/ApolloMaxH.pdf

As of market creation, Artemis 2 appeared to be on track to be the next mission to fly humans to the moon. Their flyby is expected to take the crew to about 7,400 km above the lunar surface, roughly at their farthest point from the Earth. Depending upon where the moon is in its orbit around the Earth, Artemis 2 may break the altitude record set by Apollo 13 in 1970.

At the soonest, this market should not close until after Apollo 13's record has been broken or after Artemis 2 has flown. If neither of these have happened by the closing date, the closing date should be delayed.

Contingencies:

  • For purposes of this market, "Artemis 2" is whichever mission that uses that name.

  • If no mission is called "Artemis 2", then this market will resolve based on the mission that flies using the hardware currently scheduled for Artemis 2.

  • If another mission breaks the Apollo 13 record first, then this market resolves NO.

Related markets:
/IsaacKing/will-anyone-break-the-apollo-13-cre by @IsaacKing
/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2027 by @Mqrius

The market creator reserves the option to trade in this market.

  • Update 2025-10-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the hardware currently set to be used for Artemis 2 is decommissioned without flying and there is no other future mission called "Artemis 2", then this market will resolve NO.

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Will the market resolving be delayed forever if there's no such mission?

@AlanTennant If the hardware which is currently set to be used for Artemis 2 is decommissioned without flying and there is no other future mission called "Artemis 2", then this will resolve NO.