This market predicts whether verifiable evidence confirming Kilmar Abrego Garcia's affiliation with MS-13 will emerge before May 21, 2025. Resolution will be based on official statements from U.S. or Salvadoran authorities, or credible news reports. Background: Abrego Garcia, a Salvadoran national, was deported from the U.S. in March 2025 amid allegations of MS-13 membership, which he denies. Source
Update 2025-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Based on creator feedback, reports merely detailing accusations of MS-13 affiliation, even if citing court documents from credible news sources, may not meet the threshold for concrete evidence required for a YES resolution. The evidence must be more definitive than reporting on accusations alone.
Tattoos he has were affirmed to be consistent with MS-13 affiliation at a senate confirmation hearing https://thenationaldesk.com/news/americas-news-now/dea-nominee-confirms-validity-of-kilmar-abrego-garcias-alleged-ms-13-tattoos
@manifoldgod what by your definition would be “verified” evidence he’s in the gang? I’m not sure the gang is keeping records of membership, the US govt stating in official proceeding and other court filings of his affiliations, being arrested with other known gang members, and tattoos/clothing consistent with gang attire seems to be as clear cut as you can get, short of the guy admitting he’s a member
@Jessef0226 how is a skull supposed to mean 3? Other than these alleged tattoos all we have is the government claiming an "anonymous source", as far as I'm aware.
@TiredCliche Seriously, do you expect gang members to tattoo “I am in a gang” on them? Plenty of evidence of his affiliation with other known MS-13 members, as well as a known association with human trafficking operations. I’m not sure what other evidence could “prove” he is in a gang, as gangs don’t keep ledgers of their members publically .
@Jessef0226 Can you provide some of this "plenty of evidence"? Because I am unaware of what it is. A "known association"? That's just saying "my evidence is that I know it" lmao
@TiredCliche You could’ve looked yourself if you wanted to be less ignorant. Plenty of other things I could point you to, I’ll give you this for starters ;) also, why would a man need relief from a rival gang if he wasn’t in a gang himself ?
@Jessef0226 This video clip contains no concrete evidence. It's just some lawyer claiming things.
How about this, I also have a gang unit, ICE officers, and an extremely reliable confidential informant who say he is not an MS-13 member. I will give you exactly as much evidence that this is true as Pam Bondi gave us in this clip.
@TiredCliche 1) what would you consider concrete evidence that someone is in a gang, short of the guy admitting it?(which he essentially did in his court filing petitioning to not be deported back to El Salvador) there is no explicit crime of “being in a gang” one could be charged with; not to mention gangs are informal groups with informal memberships.
2) what if I shit a brick of gold? you haven’t provided any counter evidence, so i can just say a bunch of meaningless things too
@Jessef0226 No, he didn't. Provoking a gang's ire is not proof of being in a gang. When you watched the movie "the Godfather", did you just assume that everyone the Godfather's gang killed used to be in the Godfather's gang?
One obvious way to make a gang mad at you is to snitch on them.
You haven't provided any evidence. The easiest way to provide some evidence: the informant, what is their name?
See, in America we have the Sixth Amendment, which gives everyone the right to face their accuser in a court of law.
Sure, that wouldn't be concrete, but at least it's better than "I know some guy who told me he's in a gang and also he has tattoos which I think are suspicious", which is apparently the best that the government has got so far.
The government already went on record that it was a mistake
@WilliamGunn The only mistake admitted and committed was deporting him before rescinding the protective order, which is a bit of a technicality and separate matter from his gang affiliation, for which there is quite extensive, if circumstantial, evidence.