Will resolve to 50% if somehow it happens at exactly the same time. 100% if before, 0% if after. I will not bet on this market.
Update 2025-04-01 (PST): - IMO is scheduled before IOI each year. Therefore, if both events occur on the release date, the market will resolve to yes rather than a 50% outcome. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-07-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced they will resolve the market to YES. See the linked comment for their reasoning.
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@Bayesian This https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1iniqry/openais_o3_achieves_gold_at_ioi_2024_reaching/ is not enough to trigger a YES resolution I think.
@Bayesian I was thinking you need something like this https://manifold.markets/jack/will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-imo for both IMO and IOI? I should have really made the question more specific.
@nathanwei If ioi gold happened and IMO gold hasnt happened yet, there’s no way this market resolves yes, right?
@jack without more specific specifications otherwise (e.g. requiring live participation), I count this as achieving gold on IOI.
@nathanwei does the IOI 2024 gold being obtained months ago, before IMO 2025, count for this market?
@Bayesian I think NO - I think Patrik is right here: https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/will-ai-win-a-gold-on-imo-before-it#bpboxhuq2qc