Which parties will be part of the next ruling coalition in Germany
Mini
16
Ṁ604
2025
96%
CSU
94%
CDU
72%
SPD
41%
Die Grünen
23%
FDP
6%
BSW
3%
Die Linke
3%
AfD

This definitely resolves when a new government is formed after the next election. It also resolves if the current government falls apart and a new coalition forms without new elections.

Edit: A coalition consisting of parts of a previous coalition does not count as new. I will require something like a new chancellor election or a new formal coalition agreement (Koalitionsvertrag) for it to count as a new coalition.

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So looking at my wording, in theory one could argue that there is now a "new" minority government consisting of only SPD and Greens. This was definitely not the intent of the question and trades so far do not indicate that anyone had that understanding. So I will not count this and try to come up with an improved explanation for the resolution criteria

@rayman2000 "it also resolves if the current government falls apart" seems pretty clear to me

@Paradoxicorn well it's "current government falls apart and a new coalition forms". The question is what a new coalitions means.

@rayman2000 I don't think the decision is obvious but I would probably say it isn't a new coalition because I haven't heard anybody in the media or elsewhere call it that. The fact that there isn't a new coalition agreement and that SPD and Greens neither have a majority in parliament nor would be able to get a chancellor elected to form a minority government also seem relevant.