Will Manifold think the answer to bens' puzzle was stupid?
46
Ṁ13k
Jan 4
1.9%
chance

#2 in the Highest Holders Polls market series, following this one /realDonaldTrump/will-people-like-the-time-poty-reso.

I will ask the top 25 holders whether they thought if the answer was stupid by DMing them with this message:

Do you think the answer to bens' puzzle was stupid? Asking for a market I have about it.

The holders will have 72 hours to respond to my DM, then after that votes will not be tallied. Resolves to the side with more votes. If the bens puzzle answer is not revealed or never resolves, resolves to a random number via @FairlyRandom.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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Current vote tally (Last Update: 12/23 6pm EST): 4 YES vs 9 NO

thirteenth vote is NO

twelfth vote is YES

eleventh vote is NO

tenth vote is NO

ninth vote is NO

eighth vote is NO

seventh vote is NO

sixth vote is YES

fifth vote is no

Fourth vote is NO

Third vote is NO.

I have nothing to buy YES😭😭😭

Second vote is a YES, seems like Manifold thinks the puzzle was pretty stupid after all!

Current vote tally (Last Update: 12/23 6pm EST): 4 YES vs 9 NO

First vote comes in: they thought it was stupid!

For what its worth, the star reviews have been very positive!

sixteen 5-star reviews and just one 4-star review

@bens Are you able to see who gave each review?

@adonisds Yes, go to your user profile, questions tab, and then click on the number next to the review average. You can view any creator's review score to help you decide if you should participate on their markets.

@bens whoops that was me! misclick i'll update

@realDonaldTrump ahaha, I was like,... hmm, that's fine, I guess you were pretty satisfied with the puzzle but not completely satisfied XD

so this market's now basically 'check how many puzzle market top holders bought YES here'

bought Ṁ250 NO

I think it was pretty clever.

@MachiNi But it was illogical - the clues were misleading. If you’ve never learned about chess notation, there was no way to solve it logically. It was meant solely for those who know that the clues are related to chess.

@1bets if you've never learned the Cyrillic alphabet, then any puzzle involving Cyrillic is illogical?

@TiredCliche absolutely, if the puzzle is Cyrillic - you can't logically solve it in English. (with this phrase I am a kind of took side, while I hadn't)

@1bets Hm. Sounds like just a difference of opinion here. Sometimes puzzles and riddles rely on outside knowledge not presented within the puzzle- imo, that doesn't make them illogical.

As a connoisseur of the Professor Layton series, the puzzles that assume you know the basics of chess are far from the most illogical. And don't get me started on some of the puzzles in 90s adventure games.

@1bets On Valentine's Day, your gadget-loving, technophile girlfriend gave you a most unusual slab of chocolate. While the jumble of letters looks like nonsense, if you manage to decode the letters written on the chocolate, a message from your sweetheart will appear.

What is she trying to tell you?

@1bets fwiw, at the last stages of the puzzle, it is also possible to get an LLM to minorly error correct and recognize chess notation

@TiredCliche "Text me?"

I normally type with similar mistakes, and usually only an LLM can understand my phone typing (my fingers are too wide). But here they are using a laptop keyboard - it doesn’t look like real life, possibly.

@phenomist true,without LLM truly impossible to recognize chess notation if you are not familiar either with those either with combinations

@1bets There's. No. Way. That puzzle had me stumped for nearly a year.

Well done.

The puzzle is impossible if you have no knowledge of a QWERTY keyboard.

@TiredCliche true, s/he would posibly use phone, not keyboard with such the mistakes.

I think the logic is a little broken, but llm solved that in a second from 1st attempt

@1bets The game came out before smartphones, so perhaps it's more obvious now. Anyway, my point is, that if you have no knowledge of qwerty keyboards, real or virtual, or keyboard errors, the puzzle can't be solved.

(I'll admit, the "bites" I just assumed were visual flair. I didn't realize they were key.)

@TiredCliche in the PC era, the puzzle was absolutely logical: the puzzle itself was on a computer. He or she typed the wrong phrase into a digital system (digital chocolate) using a PC.

I think large language models cannot solve all logical puzzles because of how they are trained. There are many flaws and limitations (like to avoid writing viruses) and failure modes (loops) that can make logical puzzles effectively LLM-safe.

@1bets Oh, sorry, the game is for the Nintendo DS series, which doesn't have a keyboard.

Also, not all computers use QWERTY keyboards.

Comment hidden

@1bets Besides LLM’s you can find it with sufficient Google-fu.

Searching the whole string yields nothing, but there’s clearly some kind of alternation between letters and numbers. Since it starts with a letter, let’s put spaces after all the numbers. The only weird bit is that we have two consecutive letters with the N.

So without knowing what they mean, you can still try a few different combos:

d4N f6 c4 c5 d5 b5

d4 Nf6 c4 c5 d5 b5

d4 N f6 c4 c5 d5 b5

c4 c5 d5 b5

All of these return not just chess notation, but specifically the Benko Gambit as hit one or two.

@JimHays google: Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org

Benoni Defense

https://duckduckgo.com/?origin=funnel__website&t=h_&kax=-1&q=d4N+f6+c4+c5+d5+b5&ia=web

Interesting, how different browsers with the same duckduckgo search promp show different results.

Also Wolga (Volga) Gambit..

Looks not very straightforward.

LLM promp - yes, gives the Benco Gambit

Those are all chess though. So now you know what to look for and can learn about chess notation! My point is that a priori knowledge of chess notation is not a requirement, and this can be solved without an LLM by someone who is not previously familiar with chess notation

bought Ṁ9 YES

@MachiNi It could have been a good puzzle, but won’t some of the top‑25 holders of the main market try to manipulate the outcome here?

@AleksandrM extremely low chance. There is no debate

@AleksandrM I’ll be honest in my answer if I’m asked and I assume most others will, too.

@MachiNi I completely agree, when answering, one should be honest! But if you look at this question from a philosophical point of view, aren’t all human riddles actually terribly silly?