Arb this. This market should be a bit lower than this other one due to probability of US entering recession Q4 2025: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-en

@SirSalty Can you update the market description in line with the discussion thread below? This market has 100s of traders and getting the details correct in the description is important.

Will negative growth Q4 this year and Q1 next year count as YES?

Closing date and title seem to indicate it won't.

@Shai author has failed to answer this asked 7 months ago - I don't think they are active anymore. I made a better specified version of the question https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-en

@jack Well if the mods are going to resolve this question anyway can't you specify how you intend to resolve it?

@Shai I have a position on this market so I'm not the one who should make a ruling. But my personal take is if there is a recession in 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1, then there was a recession in 2025. (Close date is not good evidence because first estimate of q4 won't be out by then)

According to the mod rules to resolve this ambiguity we need a mod without a large position to rule on it. @mods can you chime in?

@jack From a cursory reading, I would disagree - the market seems to literally ask whether there are "2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative" "by EOY2025," which wouldn't happen if one of the quarters was in 2026. But other mods would be welcome to express other opinions

@jack I agree with @Conflux's interpretation. By EOY would likely mean both quarters have to be in 2025, even if the recession starts in 2025. This is also the interpretation I am using in my own recession market https://manifold.markets/Cactus/us-recession-in-2025

@Conflux that's also a plausible interpretation, but two consecutive quarters of negative gdp is the standard (informal) definition of recession. The market doesn't say those two quarters have to both occur by EOY.

Judging by the market probability, most people are going by @jack's interpretation.

I agree with Conflux

Ok, thanks folks, can we officially make this clarification then?

@nic_kup might want to cancel your limit order

@Shai lol thanks

@nic_kup I should really only use limit orders that expire

@jack so what's the clarification we are officially making? Conflux or Jack's?

@SirSalty confluxes

@traders Please make note of the clarification above and in the description.

GDP will definitely take a hit, but I doubt it will go negative

I believe Trump has already extended an invitation to white south Africans to come to The US..

@elf I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recession or trying to cover for bad economic policy by claiming it was all intentional. Does blaming the past admin still work when you've been telling everyone for months that you're just going to blame the past admin when your plan fails?

@elf Trump is too deranged to have a strategy.