@turtlepurple you may wish to clarify - do both negative quarters have to be before 2026? Or would it suffice for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 to be negative?

Is the resolution criteria somehow different than this one? https://manifold.markets/EternalSunrise/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-th

Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?

49% chance. Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2026, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 or 2025. Resolves NO on 2027-01-01 otherwise.

Yes - this one is the "two quarters of negative growth" recession definition, that one is the "NBER declares it" recession definition (and as such it also resolves up to a year later).

Reasons why no:

• higher interest rate environment means we can ease monetary policy to reduce recession risk

• GDP growth and economic mainstreet conditions de-coupled a while ago, and we’re very likely already in a strained economic environment for a lot of Americans.

• Japan’s current turmoil is largely because of unwinding of yen carry trades triggered from a more hawkish Japanese monetary policy

• US is just Mr. Market at work—the fed still makes policy based on the Philips curve that hasn’t held for a generation, with that, the same report 6 months ago would’ve been met by a rally since it’s a clear signal to cut rates—it’s also a single data point.

• Any true breakthrough in LLM tech could single handedly buoy the US economy, even barring that just a few companies performing well can weigh the whole US gdp response, US is heavily concentrated

• Any wartime escalation that touches the US will result in downstream economic gains

Good morning, America!

🐻