Which method(s) will the police use to find Charlie Kirk's shooter?
25
Ṁ1768
2100
97%
Associate/informant provides suspect’s name
67%
Security/doorbell camera footage leading to identification
57%
Fingerprint match from evidence
52%
Public tip to police (hotline/Crimestoppers)
40%
Facial recognition match
31%
Social media post or online confession leads to identification
30%
DNA match from evidence
26%
Ballistics trace links weapon to suspect
21%
Cellphone location/records analysis identifies suspect
15%
Undercover operation or sting identifies suspect
9%
Suspect voluntarily surrenders
4%
Not found by police in 2025
4%
International cooperation
2%
Automated license plate reader or traffic camera hit
2%
Identified during a routine traffic stop or unrelated arrest
1.4%
Identified while seeking medical treatment

  • Update 2025-09-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - All methods employed by the police will count toward resolution.

    • If multiple methods are used, each such method will resolve Yes.

    • Example: DNA match from evidence resolves Yes even if identification came from a tip.

Charlie Kirk🇺🇸 US PoliticsAssassinationsCrimeCharlie Kirk shooter
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How are we defining "find" for the purpose of this market?

E.G. if the shooter is identified by a tip to the police, but DNA evidence is later key to prosecution in court, how does "DNA match from evidence" resolve?

@wolf All the methods employed by the police will count.

In your example, "DNA match from evidence" resolves Yes.

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