How Many States Will Manifold Correctly Predict During the 2024 Presidential Election?
6
แน112Jan 2
1D
1W
1M
ALL
12%
45 or less
18%
46
23%
47
23%
48
13%
49
12%
50
Using the individual state markets at https://manifold.markets/politics
Using the odds for each state at 11:59 PM PST on November 4, 2024.
Resolves to the exact number of states in which the Manifold favorite in each state received a plurality of the popular vote in the Presidential Election.
DM or comment with questions
Thank you for participating!
Get แน1,000 play money
Sort by:
Limit orders on YES placed at 49 and 50, if you're interested @Daniel_MC.
By the way @vibhav I really like this market. Would you mind if I create a numeric version of it (of course you can too)? Think that it would be cool but don't want to steal your idea!
Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
43% chance
How accurately will Manifold predict the 2024 Presidential Election?
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
54% chance
Will Manifold crash during America's election night/morning?
37% chance
Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
50% chance
Will the largest manifold market covering the US presidential election correctly predict the outcome of the election?
67% chance
Will Manifold or FiveThirtyEight be more confident about the actual winner of the 2024 US presidential election?
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
51% chance
Will Manifold correctly call every state and district in the 2024 election? If not, how many do we get wrong?