Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category without filters (without style control or show deprecated), at the end of August 31st, 2025 11:59PM ET.
In the case of a tie, all companies tied for 1st place resolve to equal probability, such that they sum to 100%.
See also:
/Bayesian/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model
/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttoimage-SO0uN6suuS
/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttovideo-AtZ0CdIc8Z
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-computer
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-vision-ai-en
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-search-ai-mo
Previous months:
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-I0QsydsZuz
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-0CRdhqptRl
jim order up for OpenAI topping the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard this month
@jacksonpolack , @Bayesian , @SemioticRivalry , @Velaris , @khang2009 , @Gen , @skibidist , @evan , @brod , @100Anonymous , @Ziddletwix ,, @Trazyn , @bagelfan , @geuber , @nikki , @ProjectVictory , @sahaj , @bohaska , @Odoacre
jim orders are large limit orders, generally at better than market prices.
Opt in / opt out thread: https://manifold.markets/post/jim-order-notification-optin-thread