Rasmussen Reports Is a well known pollster frequently criticized by media and others for being overtly partisan with a heavy Republican lean in their results. To this point, they were removed from 538’s polling average earlier this year and classified as partisan by Nate Silver last month.

This market will resolve based on comparing the national popular vote margin result between Harris and Trump, versus the final national poll margin published by Rasmussen Reports prior to Election Day. The source for the popular vote will be the New York Times’ published results page one week later. The source for the poll will be the most recent data published on Rasmussen Reports’ website prior to Election Day. Any margin over 4 will resolve to No, including 4.1.