To be successful, New Glenn's first stage must land on a barge or on land and remain upright. If New Glenn flies without recovery, or has a controlled splashdown in the Ocean, this question will defer until a barge or land recovery is attempted. The market will resolve upon confirmation of the above criteria by Blue Origin (either through social media, press release, or official livestream).
@Mqrius They must announce before the failed attempt that they are planning on recovering the booster for this market to resolve NO.
@Kire_ So does the first flight count because they have announced that they are planning to recover the booster?
@Kire_ Hard to find direct mention, but they imply it here for example, getting their recovery tooling ready before first flight.
The operation validated our tooling and procedures for recovering our first stage from the landing vessel, bringing us another step closer to our first launch.
But I guess we can wait for something more solid.