Will there be a major "Black Swan" event in 2024?
17
Ṁ621Dec 31
28%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See: these two tweets
https://twitter.com/zymazza/status/1749133896233492480
https://twitter.com/zymazza/status/1749149415061729749
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By definition there's no minor black swan event. Worth looking into Taleb's original book/articles coining the term if you're interested in how it can inform a trading strategy. I am coming toward the opinion that the Manifold platform is not liquid enough to support one, but then again I may just be not seeing whole picture
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