Will the MIT shooter be connected with the Brown shooter?
12
Ṁ366
Mar 31
16%
chance

Resolves YES if any meaningful connection between the two incidents emerges (including being the same person).

I will not bet in this market, so as to remain objective over what consistutes a "connection". Things like correspondence between the two shooters, or common membership in an organization would probably be sufficient. Things like "grew up in the same state" or "are from similar cultural milieus" would probably not be sufficient.

Inspired by Laura Loomer, of all people: https://x.com/LauraLoomer/status/2001022435512963334

Resolves as to my best judgment at the end of March. Does not require conviction / confession / >99% confidence that the suspect is accurate, etc.

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what's the base rate of bizarre higher educational shootings in the northeastern United States?

@SemioticRivalry ya these were my thoughts. Ivy League shootings are quite rare! The fact that we still don’t know what the Brown shooter shouted is also kind of bizarre? I don’t know what to make of that. There were so many witnesses. Perhaps the shooter was just really bad at vocal clarity.

umm @traders let’s say within 3 months?

@bens or I’ll say end of March?

bought Ṁ100 NO

by what date in case we dont get info either way?

@Bayesian oh shoot I accidentally set the date as tomorrow oops oops