Why is this independent (set market) instead of dependent (binary / multiple choice)?

Under what conditions might the two options both resolve yes, both resolve no, or otherwise not resolve directly opposite each other?

@EvanDaniel I would guess it was made independent as an accident. From the criteria I don't think it's mutually exclusive.

@bens he was only mostly dead

@evan assuming this resolves to time of death in autopsy report?

@bens Hi, what's your rationale for betting no?

@Trazyn I'm holding equal shares in both options

@bens How do you remain profitable doing that?

@Trazyn probably because market was incorrectly configured with independent options. creates opp for arbitrage

@Trazyn check the profit tab on this market

If you watch the video of the shot it did more than hit his artery. It took out half of his neck- his entire head went more than 90 degrees over. He was probably gone before there was time for him to process what had happened.

There is no way he could have survived a gunshot perforating his Carotid for longer than 5 minutes. He lost half a liter before he hit the ground. This market cannot be resolved and was a shit question to begin with then.

@KripkeSaul Then bet YES on Yes or at the very least, NO on No

As far as we know, Kirk was pronounced dead at the hospital. Even if it is seems he was already dead at the scene, there won’t be any reliable source for that. I don’t think investigators are concerned with establishing an earlier time of death.

@thepurplebull Is it possible for this market to even resolve then?

@Jasonb Whoever is in agreement should buy No NO so early betters can liquidate our own.

@Jasonb police reports/autopsies etc. will eventually come out.

Im on a YES position because I think that ultimately the evidence will be any efforts at the hospital were perfunctory in the course of deciding to end attempts at resuscitation. I could be wrong about that, and there could be some genuine disagreement about what should count.

But there will definitely be meaningful updates towards resolving this market as the investigation continues.

Idk exactly how manifold liquidity works. Why is this market jumping by massive amounts on tiny trades even though it has a lot of total mana invested?

liquidity is funky on unlinked multiple-choice questions i think. which this is, for some reason

@Yakushi12345 Every trade requires a counterparty. This market doesn't provide much automatic-market-making. Total volume doesn't directly affect that

Perhaps of relevance to this market:

@bens I've seen people come back from worse in the hospital I worked at

if they took him to surgery instead of declaring him dead on primary assessment at the ER he had a chance

@Luxeed what are some of the craziest things you’ve seen someone come back from?

@Traveel DM'd

I've made some free points a couple times just adjusting the arbitrage due to this being multi choice not yes/no

@Yakushi12345 same, its a good gig